Basic Risk Calculator
The Basic Risk Calculator (BRC) is an MS Excel® based educational tool intended to demonstrate that quantitative risk models do not need to be complicated. It proves that even simple probabilistic models can address some of the ambiguity and mathematical issues commonly found in risk matrices and risk scoring methods.
A Substitute for the Risk Matrix
Like the two-dimensional risk matrix, BRC includes two variables, Likelihood and Impact/Consequence, but replaces the verbal labels (e.g. High/Medium/Low) and ordinal scales (e.g. 1 - 5) with random variables (% for Likelihood and $ for Impact).
It also provides a stark contrast between the type of information that can be provided and questions that can be answered by a probabilistic model vs a risk matrix. Instead of having to provide vague descriptions of risk like "high" or "unlikely", an analyst can use more precise language such as "there is less than a 10% probability of a loss that will exceed $25K".
Basic Risk Calculator Tool
Download the free spreadsheet
(MS Excel® required to run)